Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
- Russia and Ukraine were holding their first direct peace talks in over three years on Friday in Istanbul, but with delegations devoid of either Putin or Zelensky. The Kremlin team is led by aide Vladimir Medinsky and Kyiv’s team is led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Moscow continues to harden its position. It’s made additional territorial gains recently and continues to demand NATO abandon Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, present in Istanbul, appears doubtful of any progress without the lead characters, but Erdogan is hoping to be the supreme negotiator here. Putin never had any intention of showing up at the talks, but could not directly refuse to attend due to negotiations with Trump. Russia continues to advance in Ukraine’s east, and nothing will come of these talks.
- Weaponization of water continues on the India-Pakistan front, where a shaky ceasefire has ensued since last week. Despite the ceasefire, India is advancing plans to significantly increase water diversion from the Indus River system, which serves as Pakistan’s key water source. The Indus Water Treaty, created in 1960, suspended last month following the terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that sparked this conflict. New Delhi is expediting projects such as doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River, potentially increasing water diversion from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second, though construction may take years.…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
- Russia and Ukraine were holding their first direct peace talks in over three years on Friday in Istanbul, but with delegations devoid of either Putin or Zelensky. The Kremlin team is led by aide Vladimir Medinsky and Kyiv’s team is led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Moscow continues to harden its position. It’s made additional territorial gains recently and continues to demand NATO abandon Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, present in Istanbul, appears doubtful of any progress without the lead characters, but Erdogan is hoping to be the supreme negotiator here. Putin never had any intention of showing up at the talks, but could not directly refuse to attend due to negotiations with Trump. Russia continues to advance in Ukraine’s east, and nothing will come of these talks.
- Weaponization of water continues on the India-Pakistan front, where a shaky ceasefire has ensued since last week. Despite the ceasefire, India is advancing plans to significantly increase water diversion from the Indus River system, which serves as Pakistan’s key water source. The Indus Water Treaty, created in 1960, suspended last month following the terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that sparked this conflict. New Delhi is expediting projects such as doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River, potentially increasing water diversion from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second, though construction may take years. Additionally, India aims to boost hydropower capacity in Jammu and Kashmir from 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW and is considering constructing large water storage dams—unprecedented in the Indus system. Pakistan views this as a war cry and is pursuing international legal action.
- Trump's Gulf tour has secured $600B in strategic deals (energy, defense, tech) with the Saudis, A $10B Qatari investment to expand a U.S. military base in the region (among other deals), and a UAE commitment for a joint $440B investment with the U.S. in the energy sector through 2035 (Rio Grande LNG and ExxonMobil’s hydrogen plant in Texas). The Qatari deal, particularly, is meant to buy help persuading Iran to take a deal.
- Sudan’s civil war venue has intensified into a significant proxy conflict involving the UAE and Turkey. The UAE is accused of supplying advanced weaponry to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Turkey has provided military support to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). RSF drones have recently struck strategic targets, including Port Sudan, fuel depots and other critical infrastructure, prompting Sudan to sever diplomatic ties with the UAE earlier this month. For months, we have been talking about the quietly escalating conflict over the Horn of Africa/Red Sea, and this is connected. Keep a close eye on these proxy wars as they move closer to their target.
- Trump’s latest “freedom zone” proposal for Gaza brings to mind Bosnia’s post-war Brcko District, a separate administrative entity from the Bosniak- and Bosnian Croat-dominated Federation entity and the Bosnian Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska. This latest proposal came out of the deal meetings in Qatar on Wednesday. The idea is to create a U.S.-administered “freedom zone” in Gaza to rebuild and root out the Hamas infrastructure without Israeli bombs. While Trump’s proposals always come with a cliched name tag designed to get freedom lovers excited, and typically dismissed by the Democrats as being as silly as it sounds, we’ve been here before. This is not a new idea. Will it work, like Brcko did in Bosnia? The stage hasn’t been set the same way, so the comparison is tainted from the beginning. Netanyahu may be expressing support for such a plan, but the Israelis will have a huge hand in it (no matter how quietly Washington tries to slip them in). Arab nations are up in arms about it, but take this with a grain of salt given the billions of dollars of deals Trump just cut with them. They have to keep up appearances, digitally, at least. The Palestinians will be left with no choice, because the Gulf Tour just bought their last opinions, from third parties. Br?ko worked because it followed a signed peace agreement, had NATO troops to enforce it, and functioned as a neutral corridor between two sides with no better options. Gaza has none of those conditions. There is no peace deal. There is no unified Palestinian authority ready to participate.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Deals this week are heavily weighted (but not exclusively) on the Gulf due to the Trump tour mentioned above …
- Aramco signed 34 preliminary agreements with U.S. companies, including ExxonMobil, Nvidia, and Amazon, spanning energy, AI, and digital infrastructure. While many are non-binding, the total potential value reaches up to $90 billion, marking a significant expansion of Aramco’s U.S. footprint.
- The United Arab Emirates’ ADNOC pledged to invest $440 billion in the U.S. energy sector through 2035. This includes stakes in LNG facilities and hydrogen projects, reflecting a strategic push into low-carbon energy technologies.
- NRG Energy announced the acquisition of power generation assets from LS Power for $12 billion. The deal includes 18 natural gas-fired power plants, expanding NRG’s capacity to meet growing electricity demand driven by data centers and industrial growth.
- And a bit off menu, we have Chinese BYD’s planned European expansion with a new hub in Hungary to further accentuate the geopolitical balance-of-power plays going on right now. Chinese EV manufacturer BYD announced plans to establish a European center in Hungary, encompassing sales, testing, and R&D functions. The facility will create 2,000 jobs and support BYD’s strategy to localize production and expand in the European market.
Discovery & Development
- Three new oil and gas discoveries have been made in Egypt’s Western Desert and the Gulf of Suez. One well in the Western Desert revealed gas-bearing zones with an estimated 12.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, while two wells in the Gulf of Suez are under evaluation.
- The global energy investment arm of the UAE’s ADNOC (XRG) is partnering with Malaysia’s Petronas with a stake in Turkmenistan's offshore gas and condensate field, Block I. XRG will control 38%, and Turkmenistan’s state-run oil company will hold 5%.
- Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) joined a ConocoPhillips-led joint venture to explore offshore gas in Australia's Otway Basin. The project plans to drill up to six wells by 2028, aiming to address the projected east coast gas supply shortfall by 2029.
- The Indonesian government approved Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (KUFPEC) to develop the Anambas gas block in the Natuna Sea. With an investment of $1.54 billion, the project targets annual production of 55 million standard cubic feet, with production expected to begin in 2028.
